In everyday life, the aim of a strategy is to guide you to where you what to be with a sense of purpose. Usually in football betting strategies, the aim of developing a strategy is to win and to win big. Football is among the most popular betting markets today with 1000 plus markets on a daily basis, it can be hard to miss your favourite game as bookmakers offer wider market variety and a good odd, depending on your provider.
There are so many football betting strategies one can use but in this article will focus on only five of the best and is recommended by majority of professional gamblers. Let’s take a look at ways of formulating out your own strategies before taking a look at the best strategies to use in today’s online betting markets and win.
Why are strategies important to football betting? A strategy helps you filter out markets since not all sports markets require the same approach in betting and therefore need to develop strategies that fit your betting style. Another importance of strategies is consistency in the long run, with a good strategy you can win more than you loss and this an advantage in the long run since you are increasing your bankroll rather than draining it.
It also helps you find value in odds, making your picks twice as profitable is a skill and usually is not the size of number of games selected that determine your winning profitability but quality of the odds.
How to Develop Winning Football Betting Starategies
Punters that are good in betting developed strategies through experience, since majority in the past lacked working strategies they basically depended on trial or error and this led to wins in the short run. The following are some of the ways to develop a strategy in football betting:
- Classify your self into a betting category, are you a casual or professional bettor? Once you have answered this question you are better positioned to developed your own betting strategy and being true to yourself is key.
- Check on what are your favorite markets is it football, basketball or any other sport available to you? Many bets are placed in favorite sports markets like football since majority of the people watch football events more than their local news reports. Find a favorite and learn their availability.
- If you are new to betting you may not at first pay attention to details like pitch conditions or weather conditions and how they affect the performance of players. Take time and develop a system that determines performance based on the surrounding environment and this will help categories games accordingly.
- Ask the experts. More experienced punters have years or better strategies developed of years of betting. You can save your self the long hours of research and studying markets by turning to tipsters since their more experienced they offer better choices to win and should be viewed as a point of reference. Tipsters are humans just like you and me they make decisions based on data and may or may not relay on luck, as a disclaimer don’t trust majority of tipsters in the market but listen. Don’t let them affect your decisions and remember your are the boss of you.
Top five football betting strategies
- The Kelly Criterion method
A popular scientific method of gambling on football matches since it uses probability and mathematical formulas to get the highest profitable odds. The formula states that for simple bets with two outcomes one for a win and the other for a loss is multiplied by the odds. The Kelly method takes into account the following factors:
- The odds in fraction or decimals
- probability of win expressed in percentage i.e. 40%,50% etc.
- Gross odds including the wager
- The probability of losing
An example where by a team has over 60% chance of winning with an odd value of 1/1 or 2.00 the punter has to bet 20% of the initial wager to get maximum long run growth rate. And if the gambler has zero edge on a bet the Kelly method recommends that you don’t bet on anything.
If the Kelly criterion method give negative results, this indicates that you should take the other side of the bet. These method in simple terms states that expected profits must exceed expected losses. The formula used is shown below.
K%= W- (1-W) / R
Whereby: K% is the Kelly percentage
W- wining probability
R- win/loss ratio.
An example.
The match between team A and B, states that A has a 50% chance of winning with odds of 2.00 (R). Let’s find the Kelly percentage.
50-(1-50÷2) ×100%= 74
From the example above that’s a positive Kelly Criterion but if it was a negative – 74 then the method depicts that you should not place the wager.
- Lay betting strategy
It’s a popular bet among professional punters and In simple terms your backing an event not to happen. This types betting is aggressive and requires a lot of experience. A good example is to lay a popular local team like Akwa united not to win and this means you’re backing them NOT to win. In they event they lose or draw their match you win but if they Win you lose. Simple to use but is not always available on all bookies platforms.
- Utilize the price boost on accumulator
A good number of bookmakers in Nigeria offer bonuses on the accumulator you only need to pick your bets with over 1.5 and a minimum of 5 is the average number of selections and a maximum of 30 to 40 matches are allowed on a single bet slip. The more you bet the higher the boost on possible winnings.
- Livestreaming/in play betting
Offers best betting experience and increases the chances of winning. With this strategy, you make your wages based on your observation of how an event is proceeding. Say in a football match you see Arsenal always on the attack against Manchester United, chances of the Gunners scoring are therefore high and you are bound to pick them as the next scorers. Basically put, its staking based on what you see with your own eyes, and you are likely to make a good bet since your eyes can’t lie to you! However be careful with it since its predicated on intuition, you may make a bad judgement call.
- Jackpot betting
This is the fastest way to win on betting and usually the bookmaker provides a number of games usually 17 or more depending on the type of jackpot. The advantage with this strategy is that you can win on most correct predictions (15 or 16) and also if get all correct you a huge amount.
Among these football betting strategies, which is your favourite?
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